Big Twitter Rash broke out today (Jan. 23) as many and sundry media types reported LIVE from a press tour event at Stewart-Haas Racing that featured Danica Patrick saying she will NOT participate in the 2012 Indy 500.
This year marks the first full-time season for Patrick who will drive all Nationwide races for JR Motorsports and 10 Cup races for Stewart-Haas Racing, including the Daytona 500 and Coke 600. In 2011 Patrick ran all IndyCar races and a partial schedule of Nationwide races.
Patrick said a "business decision" made the Coke 600 possible. Patrick had said if she came back to run the 2012 Indy 500 her contract required her to drive for Andretti Autosport. Presumably waiting until 2013 will make Patrick a free agent as to what team she drives for.
Patrick even hinted that she might try to "do the double" one day, which is shorthand for for a driver competing in both the Indy 500 and Coke 600 on the same day. Patrick's team owner, Tony Stewart, has done the double three times.
More details and quotes from Patrick and Stewart in USA Today HERE.
I find this intriguing for several reasons ...
1) How will this impact the Indy 500? Danica Patrick is enormously popular and well known. Will having her absent from the race for the first time in seven years impact attendance and/or TV ratings? Think it will affect attendance less than ratings. I'm increasingly convinced that people who attend the Indy 500 are primarily from within a 90-minute drive of the speedway and attend primarily as an annual event -- such as attending a state fair every year -- and will continue to attend regardless of who is racing. Indeed, I believe the race itself is not the main draw for a significant number of attendees. So I think the crowd will remain pretty constant no matter who is racing.
TV ratings are another matter. I don't believe TV viewers tune in primarily for the spectacle. They're watching the race itself, so a chance in driver line up stands to have more impact here. I'm not sure how Danica's absence will impact ratings. And let's also consider people who tune in just to root against Danica. Will they now watch the Coke 600 to hope she walls it? It will very very interesting to get the answer.
Of course there are other ratings-driving variables to consider, primarily the Indy 500 debut of the 2012 Dallara. That throws a bunch of wrinkles into the story which only add to the interest. The Indy 500 will be the first oval for the new car as well.
2) Also there's what I call the Extra X Chromosome factor. The Female Driver factor that has been a part of Indy's intrigue since Janet Guthrie and Lynn St. James. Simona De Silvestro and Katherine Legge will attempt to qualify for the 2012 500, that we know for sure (as for sure as anything is in racing). Simona generated some ink last year when she came back from a qualifying accident that severely burned her hands. Katherine is the new girl on the block, but comes in with wins in Atlantics, two years of Champ Car experience as well as three years as a driver for an Audi team in DTM.
Pippa Mann is still looking for a ride but she seemed to generate some pub last year by becoming the first British woman to ever qualify for the 500 in rather dramatic fashion as well. Ana Beatriz continues to look for a ride as well and Sarah Fisher is now a team owner. Questions ..
- Does the "girl racer thing" still have drawing power in 2012 where female drivers are increasingly common but not yet commonplace? Will the lack of female drivers impact interest in the 500?
- Will the fans/promoter/ABC feel compelled to make someone "the new Danica," even while insisting they are not? In other worlds, will another woman be treated as a Danica substitute? As much as some female drivers outwardly bridle against being "the next Danica" they also (smartly) accept the publicity that the question brings. For example, when a new, attractive female driver emerges, invariably you hear "Danica who?" as if this new female driver is a replacement for Danica, as opposed to .. for example .. Sam Hornish. How will the women in the race walk that fine line? Certainly this is an ongoing fascination for me given my Women of pressdog® obsession.
- Will the departure of Danica give more attention to other drivers, period?
- Will ABC embrace (aka flog mercilessly) the story line of "First 500 since 2005 without Danica!"
3) On the other side of the coin, what will Danica's participation in the Coke 600 mean to that race in terms of attendance and ratings? It's impossible for me to imagine ratings will go DOWN because Danica is invovled in the race. And if tickets fly out of the box office at a record pace, we'll likely hear about that too. If Danica comes into Charlotte with some good finishes or even a win in previous races, naturally that will add to the hype. But, again, we'll see.
Feel free to offer your civil opinions below. I think the best part of this deal is we'll have some data (TV ratings) and visual evidence (attendance) to help answer some of these questions, which have loooong been points of circular debate. I'm always for fewer assumptions and more facts, when possible. We should have more of the latter after races are watched and TV ratings are announced in the days after May 27.
Until she consistently places towards the top and is a legit threat to win every week, Danica is just a sideshow. She has had some of the best equipment for a driver not driving for Ganassi/Penske and has done very little with it. I can't imagine her NASCAR career going any differently. If anything, her being gone will help IndyCar because they will be forced to focus on those who actually are a threat to win.
Posted by: Derek K | January 23, 2012 at 02:18 PM
My replies to your four bullet points/questions would be:
- Yes (but waning, I hope), No.
- Yes (ugh, part one) and some will handle it better than others.
- Yes (or at least it should).
- Yes (ugh, part two, times two).
Female team owners and ones in positions of power could be more significant and interesting than drivers at this point, IMO, as I don't really consider a female driver much of a newsworthy anomaly. Fisher, and perhaps profiles of three generations of Hulman family women who oversee IMS would be of interest to me.
By the same token, I believe any storylines that emerge leading up to Indy should be the primary feature themes. Who knows what those may be?
Posted by: DZ | January 23, 2012 at 02:37 PM
I don't know... maybe because I'm from out of US, so I'm not contaminated by this Danica-fever, but I really don't measure the greatness of Danica being or not in Indy 500's grid. In fact, I still don't understand what's the matter about Danica. OK, she has a huge marketing behind her and she is pretty and drives quite well. But I don't think that the Danica factor will eclipse Indy 500 somehow. It's as you said: the event is greater than anything. C'mon, we've seen lame grid lineups with big crowds.
Although it'll be interesting for race fans in general due the novelty of seeing her racing her first Coca Cola 600, and see how she goes among the Nascar monsters.
CONCLUSION: Indy will go on well without Danica. And Danica will go on well whatever she does.
Posted by: Ninofilipe | January 23, 2012 at 02:58 PM
My hunch is that ABC will (invariably) do a 'Danica's-not-here-anymore' story and likely some small promo about NASCAR on ABC/ESPN during their Indy broadcast.
I really doubt she moves the needle that much at either race, and I'd be surprised if there's a notable variation in ratings for Indy that could be directly attributed to her not being there. Depending on how the series and ABC work at promoting the race(s) prior to Indy, what with the new car/engines and hopefully a competitive season beginning, we may just see the ratings moving upward.
Somewhat troubling is the potential that there may be an uptick in viewers now curious about this form of racing due to the tragic event(s) of October.
Posted by: Mike R | January 26, 2012 at 03:42 AM
I won't miss Danica in the series, especially since it's now primarily road + street courses. I will, however, miss her at Indy. Win at Motegi notwithstanding, the Brickyard was always the track where she showed the most consistent promise. And what promise she showed right from the beginning! After six-plus years of vast overexposure, its easy to forget just what a DRIVING sensation Danica truly was when she first broke onto the scene.
On an oval track by herself, this little pixie of a rookie driver was absolutely as fast as any of the grizzled veterans. She was the talk of Indy in '05 because she was running blistering lap times in practice the whole month, not because she was moonlighting as a swim suit model. The latter was a side story to her actual performance back then.
I'll never forget her qualifying run that year where she saved what looked like an unsaveable slide in turn one on the first lap. If she walls it then and there we probably aren't talking about her here and now. But she recovers, her mongo-sized ovaries kick in, and she runs the next 3 laps at pole-position pace to put the car 4th on the grid. I was hooked, then and there. This girl was cute, but she was fearless behind the wheel!
Then, in the race, she recovers from two serious mistakes to legitimately contend for the win. How many have forgotten that she passed the leader and eventual race winner Dan Wheldon on a restart on lap 190 and held the lead for 3 laps? She was a lucky caution flag away from actually winning in her debut. Leading in the last 10 laps and finishing 4th would have been impressive for any rookie. For a diminutive female first-timer in a male dominated sport, it was mind blowing.
(continued below)
Posted by: Gary Patrick | January 27, 2012 at 07:46 PM
(continued from above)
Danica went on to capture 3 poles that first season. "My God, when she learns to drive in traffic she'll be a championship contender" I thought. I suspect many others though the same. But she never did seem to develop the ability to drive in traffic as well as she could on a clean track. And it seemed even here qualifying speed slipped a bit over time. Perhaps with age and wisdom came just a touch of self preservation instinct? Regardless, she almost always put in one of her best performances at Indy, scoring six top tens in seven tries. I can only speculate what her IndyCar career stats might have been like if Andretti/Green hadn't turned into such a dysfunctional fluster-cluck of a team. I suspect there were a few more potential wins in her, perhaps one at Indy. If she had chosen to stay in IndyCar and moved to the right situation, I believe she still could have been a perennial contender at the 500.
Now that Danica's focused on NASCAR, however, I don't see it happening even if she comes back to run the 500 as a single event entrant. It will be up to some other female to break that final barrier. Perhaps it will be one of the ladies we have have in the sport now like Pippa, Simmona, or Lady Katherine. All are serious, competent, professional drivers who always show great determination and, at times, even show hints of better-than-Danica talent. But none of them made the memory-searing first impression that the young Danica did.
I truly believe it will take a victory in the 500 for any one of them to finally emerge from the gigantic shadow Danica has left behind. Danica never quite lived up to the early promise, and could never have lived up to the hype that eventually surrounded her, but her total body of work at the Brickyard advanced the standard for women drivers in the sport's most visible event substantially. There's very little space left between what she accomplished and actually winning the damn thing.
Posted by: Gary Patrick | January 27, 2012 at 07:49 PM
Congrats, Gary, on the longest comment in the 6-year history of pressdog.com, and perhaps in all of blogdom.
Posted by: pressdog | January 28, 2012 at 11:09 AM
Danica who?
Posted by: cartracer20 | February 07, 2012 at 01:12 PM