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« Indiana State Library gets its Indy 500 Schwerve On | Main | The Mother of All Aggregators -- indycarbuzz.com »

May 01, 2009

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Brendon

Major buzz kill indeed. I know I have a few hopefuls other than the big 3 that I would consider on race day. Pole day goes to one of the big 3 though.

indycarbuzz

But... that's why they run the race. Curt has opinions, but he doesn't have a crystal ball. Don't give up so easily.

How can anyone be all about the race, not the accoutrements? What makes the Indy 500 so special is all that surrounds it, not just that it's a 500 mile race on a 2.5 mile track. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts, and all that... in my opinion anyway.

pressdog

I also don't watch any of the Super Bowl pre-game or half time shows -- I try to turn it on 10 seconds before kick off -- so I know I'm in the minority on the whole anti-accoutrement thing.

The Speedgeek

Yeah, well, is that really all that different from the last few years? What were the odds for a win by any non-red-and-white car not driven by a guy named Kanaan last year? Or the year before that? Vitor sure made a decent run at a win last year. And Dario came out of sort-of-nowhere in '07 (he hadn't had the most stellar month). And Marco got damn close as a rookie the year before that. And some chick, I can't remember her name, got pretty close the year before that.

I just mean, there are almost always like 4-5 prohibitive favorites every year (and among them 2-3 super-duper favorites), and then everybody else. Almost every year one or two of the "everybody else" makes a decent run at a win. This year is simply no different.

Oaul

Since 1995, only two former winners have won the race. I don't think that streak will end this year. It could be Briscoe or TK but still, having 5 guys shoot it out for the win would be exciting.

Mike

Between Speedgeek and Indycarbuzz, I think it covers the realities. As said, sure you have to tip odds towards Chip and Penske's cars, but I think the field is more wide-open to someone outside that group winning than in quite some time.

Plus the one factor that even the mighty Cavin (apparently) didn't mention was Will Power, albeit in a third Rogermobile.

Non-big-three candidates? Namely, Graham Rahal, Paul Tracy, and Dan Wheldon...none of them "big three", all of them MORE than capable drivers, all 3 with teams ready to break through. I'm sure I'm forgetting someone - of course Marco or Danica could maybe pull it off...maybe RHR...ultra-longshots are Justin or EJ. If a third KV car shows up with Oriol Servia, I wouldn't count him out at all.

A lot of stuff can, and does, happen in 500 miles. Cavin gives his "insight" by playing more than obvious odds to minimize putting himself in the position of being in error. I'm pulling for an "upset" regarding the big 3 (though I'd be very happy if TK or Will win it) dominance. I believe this year is when it is likely to happen.

Mike

Having now listened to the 'cast, I really think Cavin and Lee are counting much too lightly the capabilities and possibility of Rahal and Power. For them to put Rahal down in a 'third tier' is pretty shortsighted.

Roy Hobbson

There are five different potential winners?!?!? The hell with that!!! It's much, MUCH better when there's only two or three. Five?!?!?! Why that's just crazy talk, and I won't hear of it.

-Bud Selig

CC

Sorry to put a damper on you, Pressdog, but I stand by my statement (five legit possible winners: HCN, Dario, Dixon, Briscoe and TK). But I'll say this: It's a very deep field with many who could sneak in there: Wheldon, Marco, Danica, Power, RHR, Tracy, Sharp, Mutoh and even Carpenter finished fifth last year. And surely I'm forgetting someone on this early Saturday morning. BTW: Is it May yet? Hell, yes, it is. -- CC

pressdog

As I said, CC, I appreciate your honesty. Sorry to be pessimistic, but for about three years I've often whined (and bawled and frothed) about the Big 3 dominance being a threat to sales. Having a predictable racing product is a fun-tastic way to drive away customers (and, hence, kill the league). It's exactly why baseball, football and basketball make such a big deal about creating parity. However, many people, including Brian Barnhart, seem fine with the same 8 out of 22 to 33 cars having any shot at winning every oval, as they have since KY 2004. The league could have pulled the new car design forward from 2010, 11 or 12 and helped. I guess we can Keep Hope Alive in Year 5 or hope that two of the eight stage an epic war like Hornish vs. Andretti in '06, or there's some kind of air strike/big one that takes out a bunch of cars.

Hal Raimey

Dang, those CART teams.

Why did they have to show up in the IRL and make a mockery of it?


Joe

As much as the new cars would help, no one is gonna be able to afford them for a while.

I am struggling to think of past years at Indy that were much different than it is now. It's always been some guys ready to win, some guys glad to make it, and some guys in between.

But how many years has the guys TRULY ready to win list been longer than 6?

Damon

Curt, I'll give you Kanaan, Dixon, Franchitti and Castroneves as the top-tier guys, but NO WAY on Briscoe.

Marco AND Danica both have Indy 500 resumes through their first 3 starts that are as good, if not better than Briscoe does (look it up) in terms of average finish, top 10 finishes, top 5 finishes and laps led, yet you kick them to the curb as if they have no talent, even though Marco and Danica have proven to run well at Indy in their careers.

Damon

And let me also agree with Speedgeek about "everybody else" making a run at the favorites.

Last year the top tier was Dixon, Wheldon, Castroneves and Kanaan. Well, 3 of those 4 finished the race, but guess who finished 2nd to Dixon? Vitor Meira. And Marco was 3rd, finishing ahead of two of the three "top tier guys" still running at the finish in Castroneves and Wheldon.

And let me also add that Scheckter was running 3rd (only Dixon and Marco ahead of him) last year at the time he broke his driveshaft in the pits and ahead of two of the three "top tier guys" in Wheldon and Castroneves.

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